UFC 300 Championship

We are finally here at UFC 300. Happy UFC 300 everyone! This has felt like the longest build up to a card ever. I think basically since the turn of the year it has been the focus of fight fans everywhere. We have been gifted with two great PPVs so far this year (yeah I’m ignoring you UFC 297). 298 was brilliant and really lived up to expectations, including my devastation at what Topuria did to Volkanovski. 299 was crazy – the card was built amazingly well and the action was very exciting. My picks were actually pretty good for that card. I almost nailed it perfectly for a couple of the fights, so it might be worth paying attention here – I’m not as useless as I seem.

Anyway, with a few underwhelming Fight Night championships over the past few weeks, anticipation for 300 has been building exponentially. Somehow, we have no issues with the card. No one has pulled out for injury and there are no rumours of anything awry across the card. The only concern any of us have is for Kayla Harrison making weight which happens later today as I write. So the card is on a plate now, the UFC need to hope it delivers as planned.

A lot has been made of the way this card was built. It is a well-heralded fact that 12 current or former UFC champions are on the card. We’ll see this from the get-go with the opening bout against two former champs. I like the way in which the card has come together, there’s something for everyone. Obviously, there are stories of former champions who will capture the imagination of casual fans and maybe former hardcore fans. There are current stars such as Pereira, Gaethje, Holloway, Oliveira, Nickal, Jiří, etc – these are fighters who are all at the peak of their powers and popularity. They’ve also set up some really exciting up and comers. I was so so happy to see Yusuff vs Lopes made and also the Turner vs Moicano fight – with these the UFC are allowing new stars to make their names on the big stage (fingers crossed for Lopes especially). So despite all the criticism about the main event and the construction of the card otherwise, I really believe that top-to-bottom it is the best card I’ve seen. I wasn’t around for UFC 200 so can’t comment on that, but in recent memory it just pips all those other cards. It is better than 299, 296, 290, 285, etc. Aren’t we lucky?

Given the unbelievable strength of the card, I was trying to work out how to go through this and incorporate all the fights. I can’t do breakdowns for any more than the main card fights, but I will do some very short predictions for the prelim and early-prelim fights and then I’ll do some other predictions or bets etc.

Early Prelims:

Deiveson Figueiredo (8) vs Cody Garbrandt – Bantamweight Bout

Not quite sure why Cody was pushing so hard for this, but I guess because a win would put him in title territory given how good Figgy is and that Cody is at the end of this career. Anyway, sucks to be him because he’s way too chinny and Figgy’s all-round game just is superior. Deiveson Figueiredo by knockout in round 2.

Bobby Green (14) vs Jim “Fucking” Miller – Lightweight Bout

Quite a big fan of this fight. Both guys are veterans and the whole story about this being 10 years in the making I love. The Jim ‘Fucking’ Miller story is hilarious, also he has won like 5 on the bounce so will be competitive. Also Green coming off that brutal loss leaves lots of questions on how this is going to go. Jim Miller wins by knockout in round 2.

Jessica Andrade (4) vs Marina Rodriguez (6) – Strawweight Bout

Andrade is great to watch so I’m happy she’s on this card. I haven’t seen much of Rodriguez, but I read that she is an eight-limbed Muay Thai specialist, so that has me fearing slightly for Andrade. However, Andrade rarely goes down properly (can only think of Yan Xiaonan and Valentina Shevchenko who have managed that), so I imagine it’ll be Rodriguez victory by unanimous decision (29-28 x3)

Jalin Turner (10) vs Renato Moicano (13) – Lightweight Bout

Yeah this is obviously a lot of fun. Turner was involved in two or three Fight of the Year contenders in 2023 and finished it off by brutalising Bobby Green. He’s a very likeable fighter, all-action, weirdly sized for lightweight (he’s like 6’3) and has a penchant for a finish. Money Moicano is back and trying to make a name for himself in a big way. None bigger than UFC 300 – let’s see what these early prelim headliners have. I’ll take Jalin Turner by knockout in the third round.

Prelims:

Sodiq Yusuff (13) vs Diego Lopes – Featherweight Bout

Lopes is a crazy fun fighter. He debuted on short notice last year against Evloev and narrowly lost on decision. He did however demonstrate how much of a fun fighter he is, and following that he had two great victories for the rest of the year. I’m a big big fan of his and really want to see him make the most of this opportunity. My dream is Lopes avenging Volkanovski beating Topuria, but to get there he needs to win this and become a ranked featherweight contender. And he bloody will, Diego Lopes by submission in the second round.

Holly Holm (5) vs Kayla Harrison – Women’s Bantamweight Bout

It’s so huge that we’re seeing the debut of Kayla Harrison in the UFC, very exciting times. There are so many questions around how she’ll fare – has the competition she’s been facing been anywhere near the standard in the UFC? Can she successfully cut weight to 135 lbs? Is this all a bit late in her career? I want to know the answers to all of these but without them I feel very poorly placed to make a pick on this fight. I’ve watched Holm a few times recently and I do think she is defying the whole ageing thing quite well. I’m predicting that Kayla will come in depleted and then I’ll take Holly Holm by split decision (29-28 x 2, 28-29 x 1).

Calvin Kattar (8) vs Aljamain Sterling (BW-2) – Featherweight Bout

Aljo moving up is fun. Hopefully he won’t be as disliked now as he was when Bantamweight champ. Kattar is coming back after being out for 18 months after picking up an injury against Arnold Allen. Before that he was memed by Max Holloway who broke the record of number of strikes in one fight when he massacred Kattar. I think this is a good night for Aljo, Aljamain Sterling by unanimous decision (30-27 x 3).

Jiří Procházka (2) vs Alexander Rakic (5) – Light Heavyweight Bout

This will be a good fun fight. These two also don’t like each other so that should make for a more interesting scrap. I think Jiří has been worked out by the top of the division now and, as much as I like him, I think Rakic is going to look good here with some sort of head kick knockout in the second round.

Main Card:

Bo Nickal vs Cody Brundage – Middleweight Bout

Like many fans, I am pissed about the placement of this fight on the main card of UFC 300. It’s a joke, that much is clear. Bo Nickal is a bit of a superhero in the collegiate wrestling world, so I imagine he is bringing a lot of that audience to UFC 300, but genuinely who cares when they’re going to make a ton of money anyway and there are so many other fights in the early-prelims and prelims which deserve to be on the main card. In fact, I’d literally want any fight that isn’t on the main card to have this spot (apart from Andrade vs Rodriguez), and it could have been a cool opportunity to highlight specific talent. Imagine if Jim Miller’s UFC 300 appearance had been on the main card. Or maybe if Diego Lopes was able to catch the imagination of even more fans with another standout performance. Or even, God forbid, the possible GOAT of women’s combat sports making her UFC debut! Seriously, I’m pissed about this fight opening up the biggest main card ever. It literally devalues the whole card and throws any integrity of the bout order in the mud. As a result of all this I don’t even want to do a full breakdown, but I’ll give some thoughts here.

Bo Nickal is 5-0 in MMA (2-0 in the UFC) after an unbelievably successful time in the wrestling scene. He is hyped as a future champion and is being treated accordingly. Realistically they won’t give him a fight they can see him losing until he reaches the rankings, so expect a dominant victory here. Brundage has no business being anywhere near UFC 300, but hey he has some sort of wrestling background and has won his last two fights so when Bo inevitably beats him it will look more respectable than his previous victories. Don’t be fooled though – this is a lay-up. I have no doubt that Bo has serious potential to be a contender, but the fannying around is jarring. If he’s this good then put him up against big competition. He chats shit about other big Middleweight fighters, but none of them will still be around the rankings when he eventually gets there if he keeps fighting this level of competition.

Anyway, Bo Nickal will win literally however he wants to in the first round.

Charles Oliveira (1) vs Arman Tsarukyan (4) – Lightweight Bout

Now this might well be my most anticipated fight of the whole night, which is definitely saying something given the strength of this card. I love everything about this fight: the two fighters, their styles, number one contendership being on the line, where it’s placed on the card – everything. These two are fighting for a shot at the Lightweight title, which is deserved in both cases. After UFC 300 Dana White is going to have a hard time working out which contender gets the next shot, and while the winner of this might have to wait a bit, they shouldn’t need another fight before the title now. These two are wonderful fighters to watch who are each coming off the same opponent. Oliveira brutalised Benil Dariush in May last year inside the first round, Tsarukyan did it in December even more quickly. They’re now both ready to take on Makhachev for their second time. Oliveira lost to Makhachev in 2022 and has been working back to this pinnacle since. His fans would love for him to climb atop the mountain once again – that will be a good storyline if we get it. Meanwhile Tsarukyan made his UFC debut against Makhachev in 2019 on a week’s notice and fought a hard fight all the way to decision against him. He has had 5 years to develop and rechallenge Islam – that will be a good storyline if we get it. Either way it goes, it’ll be compelling. But which way is it going to go?

I’ll focus on Oliveira first, a fierce threat on the ground with some crazy high-level BJJ which has him finding submissions in all sorts of positions, but importantly both on the top and bottom. On the feet he is deceptively good. He has quietly big power in his hands and his work with knees and elbows in the clinch is threatening. Stand-up fights with him get dirty as he looks to rough up whoever is on the other side of the cage to him. He’s a nasty threat who has proved himself time and time again in the UFC.

Then we have Tsarukyan on the other side. This guy has had a bit of a slow build in the UFC but is looking like a serious threat to the lightweight division. He’s not as submission focused as Oliveira but has a strong wrestling game which finishes with ground-and-pound. On the feet he has similar sneaky strong power as demonstrated through the Dariush knockout in December. His hands are fast and he throws haymakers which, if landed, are devastating.

I love a contender like Tsarukyan who starts building proper momentum and looks incredibly talented. There are plenty of comparisons to be drawn with the current champion in the weight class below. Ilia Topuria seemed to enter the fold in a very similar fashion to Tsarukyan and now has clasped the belt from Featherweight GOAT Volkanovski. I foresee a similar trajectory for Tsarukyan – but this is a tough fight. Oliveira is incredibly experienced and if he can work his game then I think he’d win. But I don’t think Tsarukyan lets that happen. Tsarukyan won’t be manipulated on the ground like others. He’ll be better in landing and defending takedowns and I think he eventually beats Oliveira by TKO (ground and pound) at the end of the first round. Then we will all bask in the glory of a lightweight contender who really could dethrone Islam Makhachev.

Justin Gaethje (C) vs Max Holloway (2) – BMF Title Bout

Wowee, fight fans worldwide cannot believe how lucky they are that this fight has been made. It’s absolutely nuts. I’ve never seen a matchup be so expected to deliver a Fight of the Year candidate, maybe even fight of all time. A lot of the matchmaking for UFC 300 has been slightly weird, and this fight is definitely included. However, this is the crème de la crème of matchmaking, two brutal fighters who are both fan favourites because they go to war every time they fight being put against each other. It was slightly out of sight because Holloway is usually fighting at 10lbs lower and I think that helped the fan excitement when this got announced. This will be a banger for the ages I hope. Let’s quickly deep-dive these two.

Justin Gaethje, nicknamed the Highlight for a reason, is so fun to watch. He is consistently involved in serious wars. Last year he was losing to Rafael Fiziev, and then turned it around to win that fight by decision. Both of them looked horribly busted up at the end of the fight, and it was a perfect example for demonstrating what Gaethje does. He’ll get beaten up but will not go down. Following this victory, Gaethje was put up against long-time foe Dustin Poirier to fight for the vacant BMF title. Now the BMF title is a bit of a joke, but it’s nice they try to vary it up in some respect. Gaethje won the title after head kicking Poirier in the second and winning by brutal knockout. He once again cemented himself as a fan favourite. That knockout was filthy and just adds to Gaethje’s highlight collection. Gaethje is a proper hard bastard when it comes to his fight game. He has made vast improvements to his technical game which means that he is not just an all-out brawler. His strengths are in his stand up game, especially both the boxing and the leg kicks. His counter-striking has been honed through match-ups such as the Fizievs and Poiriers of this world. With a victory here he should really be next to fight for the title – whenever he might be able to do that given the war he’s about to enter.

On the other side is Max Holloway who is undeniably beloved by the fans. Holloway has broken numerous records in the UFC such as most strikes ever. He has a few losses on his record, but three are to Volkanovski and others come when he first tried to go up to lightweight. Now he is trying once again to go up in weight division and I think he has picked a prime time to do so. Firstly, the featherweight division is already missing him now that they’re in dire need of a suitable challenger to Ilia Topuria. This means that whenever Max returns to that division and whatever happens in this fight, he’ll probably walk straight into a title shot. Secondly, given what he’s accomplished in the featherweight division it seems fair to think he can go up with all that experience behind him but still being 32 years of age. And thirdly, I just think this match-up suits him perfectly. Gaethje isn’t going to mess around with anything on the ground which allows Holloway, the self-proclaimed ‘best boxer in the UFC’, to express himself. This is perfect for Holloway to demonstrate his striking acumen.

God, I am so excited for this fight. Neither man is used to going down at all and I am kind of hoping that we’ll see that Saturday night – or at least a late knockout after a brutal fight. Please watch this fight, if you can’t watch it live then watch a full fight replay whenever you can because it should not be missed. This is a 50/50 to the extreme, but I’m going to take Gaethje by TKO in round 5.

Zhang Weili (C) vs Yan Xiaonan (1) – Strawweight Title Bout

I find this to be quite a strange match-up for UFC 300. It is an awesome celebration of women’s MMA and to have an all-Chinese affair in a UFC title fight is massive for the country’s MMA community, but why is it co-maining UFC 300? Realistically, this should headline a card in China as was the plan for a while. Instead, it falls into a hyped card where the majority of fans are going to be a little bit clueless. In turn I feel like this fight gets slightly disrespected because of this context. Anyway, it should be a banger so let’s have a look.

It’s been 11 months since we have seen Yan Xiaonan, when she knocked out Jessica Andrade and earned herself this title shot. Her performance in that fight was incredible and gave the fans a lot of hope that they were seeing a true contender coming into the picture. She’s a feisty kickboxer possessing serious power, as demonstrated in her last fight. She’s been working with Team Alpha Male and has become very close to Urijah Faber who has helped develop her grappling abilities and defensive positioning on the ground.

Then we have the beast from the East (never heard her referred to as this ngl), Zhang Weili. Zhang is a brilliant champion, possibly the best pound-for-pound fighter in the UFC, certainly up there if not, and comes across so well to fans. Zhang is truly elite everywhere, from her crushing stand-up game to her power wrestling to her unbelievable fighting IQ. There is a reason she is champion: she has proven to be simply the best the strawweight division has to offer.

Watch this fight as the perfect example of how good women’s MMA is right now. The strawweight division itself is really exciting right now and this bout will just highlight the state it is in. I am a fan of Zhang because she is elite and also obviously quite a good person – and I think this draws me into wanting to pick for her. Yan might well be near Zhang’s level, but Zhang is in her prime and I don’t see her losing now. I’m going to take Zhang by unanimous decision (49-46 x2, 48-47 x1)

Alex Pereira (C) vs Jamahal Hill (1) – Light Heavyweight Title Bout

And here we have the main event, a thrilling matchup in the light heavyweight division. If you had told fans a year ago that this would be the UFC 300 main event, I do think that they would be a little bit disappointed. This is a point worth dwelling on for a second – ultimately a lot of fans were disapproving of this choice for the main event of the biggest card ever. And that is so fair, this fight was going to headline 301 next month but they were in desperate need of a main event here so they decided to move it over. In that circumstance, I absolutely agree that it was the right decision. However, it’s about how they got to that circumstance that I take issue with. Conor McGregor could have been at the top here but UFC fannied around too long with contracts to make that work. And if not him, I felt that there were a few really good options but all of the timings were off. The Middleweight situation could have been perfect – my personal shout would have been Dricus Du Plessis vs Israel Adesanya for UFC 300. But there was also intrigue in other divisions; the UFC could have stood up to the scourge of the earth Jon Jones and put him against Tom Aspinall to unify the heavyweight division, they could have built the right challenger for Leon Edwards in the welterweight division, Islam could be defending against literally anyone at lightweight, they could have reworked O’Malley’s schedule at Bantamweight. There were so many different ways this whole situation could have gone. I think UFC’s planning has been off and they put themselves into a situation in which Pereira vs Hill seems their best option, but that really never should have been the situation.

Anyway, these guys deserve a breakdown for the fight so I’ll give it here. I wasn’t joking when I described this match-up as thrilling. I’m super excited for how this is going to go down and it’s for great reasons. These guys are both stand-up beasts who have summited the light heavyweight division. Hill is coming off an awful achilles injury far earlier than anyone expected. He relinquished the belt in July and he is already back to challenge the new belt-holder, Pereira. From what I’ve read, this injury recovery has been far quicker than normal so that throws doubt into the mix about Hill’s prospects. Meanwhile, Pereira is an enigma within the UFC. 11 MMA fights in his whole career and he’s a two-weight champion in the best promotion in the world. Most prospects will need around 11 MMA fights to even be picked up by the UFC – Pereira is unique. He just won the belt in a slightly controversial ending against Jiří Procházka and is ready to defend his new title. I’ll briefly talk through these two individually and then give my prediction.

Jamahal Hill is a lovely messy boxer. He is very linear in his approach and throws in high volume – stiff jabs and sneaky shots here and there. He looks to overwhelm in his approach, constantly stalking the opponent and getting ready to land a big combination. Jamahal also has power, enough power to put many men out. The highlight reel KO of Johnny Walker is funny and I would recommend watching that quickly before you go any further. But he’s not just a KO artist – Jamahal has proved otherwise when he originally won the title against Pereira’s now-coach, Glover Teixeira. Jamahal beat up Glover over 5 rounds and looked like he had the credentials to be the next dominant champion.

Then we have Alex Pereira, who is a known quantity at this point. Pereira was a two-weight champion in Glory for a while and has already won and lost the middleweight title, and now won the light heavyweight title. This man is incredible and certainly a joy to watch. Being a former kick-boxing champion, Pereira utilises that approach in the octagon. He marches forward with some of the best leg kicks in the UFC, and some devastating power in his hands, that left hook is well documented for the power it possesses. His grappling didn’t look horrific against Jiří, though I suspect that’ll be meaningless in this fight because I see neither of them chasing any grappling opportunities.

These are two high, high class fighters in a really competitive fight. I think each fighter has a big weakness. Hill’s achilles is going to be in danger given how quick his recovery has been, and Pereira could definitely exploit that with leg kicks. He could easily use these to set up a big KO, so Hill has to be wary. On the other side, Pereira has been shown to be chinny quite a few times and Hill is definitely a fighter who can exploit that. I think I’m in the minority, but I can’t get over the wobbles I’ve seen Pereira have. When he gets rocked it looks like the fight could end very quickly, and I think Hill has the ability to pile on the pressure, catch Pereira heavy in a combination, and put him to sleep. I’m taking Jamahal Hill by knockout in the second round.

Rounding it off

This is a huge card and I am anticipating one of the best sets of performances from fighters that we’ve seen before. There are a few random categories I’m going to create right now to give some overall picks:

Biggest underdog – I can’t look past Holly Holm for this pick. Bookies have her as the third biggest underdog of the night and I think that is unfair. If you’re looking to take a gamble, back Holly for this one.
Biggest disappointment – this category could go to numerous fighters. It’s also an inherently negative pick so I apologise for that. I could see Aljo not making the transition well, maybe Gaethje or Holloway getting dropped early, but ultimately I think Charles Oliveira will disappoint his heaps of fans when he gets finished early.
Performance of the night – Bo Nickal will win a $300k bonus, but I also think we might see both Diego Lopes and Alexander Rakic reaping the same reward.
Fight of the night – Obviously Gaethje vs Holloway.
Biggest stakes – this is a category designed to highlight the fighter with the most to lose on this card. I personally see Pereira taking a big loss here and I think that really damages his stock. Honourable mentions to Oliveira and Kayla Harrison who could see their reputations fall considerably with a loss.
Biggest breakout performance – I like this category. I think Jalin Turner could make a big name for himself and warrant a top 5 callout with an impressive win. Bo Nickal is a given for this category. Finally, Tsarukyan who is going to show people that there are levels to this game and he is young and hungry.

Okay, that’s all from me. Hats off if you’ve got this far, but I also massively appreciate that. Enjoy the fights, stay tuned for hopefully a reaction post I might make next week.