It felt fitting to use my first post on Joey’s blog to dive into the first UFC card of the year. In the last two years I have become a massive fan of the UFC and other MMA promotions generally. Despite not being a man who would not align himself with stereotypical UFC fans, I find the sport unendingly compelling, with twists and turns guaranteed in any card. The first pay-per-view of the year is often underwhelming, but it is always a nice benchmark for the year. Although slightly keeping with this theme (more so based on the strength of the cards to come in the next 3 months), 297 will re-announce the UFC in a year in which it is bound to break all of its own records. We are three months away from UFC 300, which is surely going to be one of the most bought pay-per-views they have had. Join me now so you can bask in the mind-bending year of MMA we are about to have.
Here are my UFC 297 main card breakdowns and predictions.
Arnold Allen (4) vs Mosvar Evoloev (9) – Featherweight bout
In the main card opener, Arnold Allen comes into this fight off the back of only his second defeat in his professional career. However, that comes as a decision loss against the man who is about to fight Justin Gaethje for the BMF title 10 lbs up – Max Holloway. Holloway is a future UFC hall-of-famer and is known for putting on some of the best performances in the last 10 years. Although Allen showcased impressive durability, he was well-beaten by Holloway on the night. Before that, Allen had built up an impressive resume and demonstrated his elite-level skills across the board. His boxing is aggressive and measured, throwing high volume with impressive power at featherweight. Mixed with his neat clinches and overall ground game, Allen makes for one of the top contenders in the featherweight division. At 29, there is a long time for him to be a problem for his peers.
On the other side of the cage will be Mosvar Evloev. Evloev is an undefeated Russian fighter whose dominant abilities ensure he belongs among the stereotype of Russian and Dagestani fighters. His record is 17-0 and he displays ruthless pressure-wrestling, thriving when dominating positions and scrambles. His stand-up game delivers as well, with solid boxing and power in his hands. If there’s a word Evloev epitomises it is dependable. His last fight saw him face a debuting Diego Lopes, who had Evloev in all sorts of trouble with some tight submissions, yet Evloev survived and saw out a decision win.
I see this as an exciting fight demonstrating high, high-level MMA. Allen will have to deal with Evloev’s scrambles and wrestling positioning, which has overcome every opponent who has come before. But if he can get the better of the boxing and then lead the position as it goes to the ground, I think he will demonstrate his superiority. I don’t believe that Evloev has faced any opponent quite at the level of Allen and I think he will falter in the second or third via TKO.
Chris Curtis (14) vs Marc-Andre Barriault – Middleweight bout
Chris Curtis has just wrapped up the same training camp as defending champion Sean Strickland. Curtis is a fun fighter who brings aggression. He’s stacked and moves so impressively – an exciting high-volume brawler who deserves this first-ever main card appearance. Meanwhile, Barriault was a shoo-in for this Toronto card. He hails from Quebec and presents an effective volume-based stand-up game. He relies mostly on his boxing, which elicits a fight or flight reaction from his opponents.
I would write more on this fight, but if truth be told, I started this post without much time before the fights, so I won’t be able to deep-dive each one. I’m going to go out on a limb here and predict Barriault by KO in the second round. I feel like Curtis is starting a slide, and I like Barriault’s pressure against Curtis’s counters.
Neil Magny (13) vs Mike Mallot – Welterweight bout
Not to knock him (maybe slightly) but I don’t feel like I’ve seen Magny look impressive. I haven’t been a fan long enough to have seen his rise, but to be fair, I have seen enough of his consistency in remaining in those welterweight rankings to respect him. He is not physically imposing but is a reliable head in the octagon. The way he got bitched on by Ian Garry in August was quite embarrassing, and I don’t think this match-up is good for him. Mallot is an aggressive counter-kickboxer who is on the rise in the UFC. He gets this opportunity at a ranked fighter perhaps a bit early, but I think the UFC wanted to put someone against Magny who can win and perhaps emerge as a / the Canadian star in the company right now. I’ll go Mallot in the first round by TKO (punches).
Raquel Pennington (2) vs Mayra Bueno Silva (3) – Women’s Bantamweight Title Bout
I do really enjoy women’s MMA, but for me, the rosters aren’t deep enough to give the divisions the same emphasis as the men’s. Despite that, this is a title bout for the vacant Bantamweight title and naturally carries a lot of intrigue. The dominant Amanda Nunes (for the most part) had held the title since 2016 until her recent retirement. Pennington has been there and done it with the best of the best women’s bantamweights but never quite made it to the championship. She loves her jab, and I think she will rely on it. It’s hardly an original thought (shoutout to MMATheory), but this fight lends itself to comparisons with the main event style match-up-wise. Bueno Silva is an unorthodox and aggressive pressure-fighter both with her stand-up and wrestling. Her limb-based submission game will overwhelm Pennington, and eventually, she will get a submission victory in round 3.
Sean Strickland (C) vs Dricus Du Plessis (2) – Middleweight Title Bout
LFG. If you ever choose to join this journey with me, you’ll feel the hype of a headlining fight being introduced by the GOAT, Bruce Buffer. IIIIIT’s TIIIIIIIIIIIME. Although there are other big fights on the horizon, this Middleweight Title fight is one of my most anticipated. We get Sean Strickland, men’s fighter of the year, up against Dricus Du Plessis, a terrifying South African who always delivers exciting wins. These two scrapped in the crowd 5 weeks ago at UFC 296 after exchanging barbs at a press conference the previous day. Strickland is a bit of a dick, hiding his presumably backward but atypical Republican views behind a likeable shtick of the bolshy, gun-loving ‘merican stereotype. He got hit where it hurts when Dricus used his painful personal context against him (his reaction revealing himself to be quite the hypocrite). I know people love him, but I personally hope Strickland gets humbled on Saturday. Sure, he beat Adesanya (or, as Jo and I refer to him, anime dude), which was a breath of fresh air for the Middleweight division, but as time goes on, I see that victory as the lesser of two evils.
Stylistically, this bout presents a fascinating smorgasbord of MMA skills. Strickland boasts a tall frame, and he hangs behind this probing and vicious jab. His kicks are deceptively present, especially that front kick. He checks kicks in a savage way, and any fighter would have trouble getting him to the ground due to his wily takedown defence. His emergence in 2023 was predicted by no one, getting a title shot almost out of nowhere when ranked at #7, coming off of a win against an unranked opponent. He outclassed Izzy in September and rightfully claimed the Middleweight belt – to the disbelief of every spectator. This, his first title defence, feels weird. In one sense, it feels like he is entirely out of place; in another, these are the fruits of his labour, and it is a well-deserved moment for him.
Strickland’s match is a beast. I was fairly cold on Dricus after watching him do a botch job in his win over Derek Brunson. That might sound harsh given the 2nd round TKO result, but Dricus looked gassed, and his stand-up did not look smooth. I was, however, converted during International Fight Week in July when he dominated the former champ Robert Whittaker and put him out early into the second round. Dricus looked terrifying, bullying a fleeing Whittaker and beating him into the ground. Dricus is definitively unorthodox, throwing odd combinations with high volume. His pressure is second-to-none, and he is relentlessly pushing for a finish. I have heard that he demonstrated this dominance in a regional context in South Africa, and this has only continued in his UFC run so far.
This fight is a rather unpredictable one. These two fighters represent very solidified styles, and even the most devoted fans are struggling to imagine what the match-up will bring. My prediction matches my opinion on this one. I frankly do not like Strickland, and I do not think that he has a future at the top of the Middleweight division. Whereas Dricus belongs there. 2024 will bring many title changes and I think this will see the first men’s title changing hands. Not only that, but I think that Dricus will still be champion in 2025. People will start to realise his abilities and I believe that he will announce himself triumphantly with a second round knockout come Saturday night.
Conclusion
I’ve perhaps been a bit hopeful by predicting a finish in every fight of the main card here, but this is my first time actually writing on the UFC, so I’m interested to see how my predictions go. If we see any decisions, I think it’ll be in one of the first three fights – I can’t imagine all those fighters will turn up as I expect them to. But that’s why I love this sport – the unpredictability mixed with the elite sporting skillset and obviously a side of controlled brutality makes for the most compelling few hours every couple of weeks for me. If I can convince one person to watch a single card this year, I’ll be happy, but I want to keep writing about it regardless. Tune in at 3 am with other losers like me and potentially fall in love with the UFC before some of the best cards I have ever seen follow in the next few months.